With decades of experience navigating the complexities of the supply chain, Rohit Laila has developed a keen sense for the subtle shifts that signal major market changes. His passion for integrating technology with logistics gives him a unique perspective on the forces currently reshaping the freight industry. In a market where winter storms are triggering unprecedented volatility, we sat down with Rohit to understand the deeper dynamics at play and what they mean for the road ahead.
Spot rates recently climbed to $2.71/mile during a period of severe weather. Beyond the weather itself, what underlying market conditions are turning these events into major rate disruptions, and how does this January’s volatility truly differ from what we’ve seen in past years?
It’s a fantastic question because it gets right to the heart of the matter. For years, we’ve treated severe winter weather as a predictable, temporary nuisance. A storm would hit, rates would blip up for a week, and then everything would settle back down. But what we’re seeing now is fundamentally different. That $2.71 per mile figure isn’t just a weather-induced spike; it’s a symptom of a much more fragile system. The real difference is that the market no longer has any slack to absorb these shocks. In previous years, even with weather delays, there was enough available capacity to handle the backlogs without causing a system-wide panic. This year, the weather is hitting a market that is already strained, with baseline capacity stretched thin. So instead of a minor ripple, a routine blizzard is creating a tidal wave that sends shippers scrambling and spot rates through the roof with an intensity we haven’t seen before.
We’ve seen tender rejection rates climb past 13%, a level that signals serious issues with capacity. What does this high rejection rate tell us about the current state of routing guide compliance and contract pricing, and how does it directly fuel the spot market volatility?
That 13.42% tender rejection figure is what’s keeping supply chain managers up at night. To put it in perspective, we in the industry start getting nervous when rejections hit 7% or 8%—that’s the inflationary watermark. When you see a number north of 13%, it’s a five-alarm fire. It tells you that the system is breaking down at a contractual level. Carriers are essentially telling shippers, “Your contracted rate is no longer worth our time,” and are abandoning their primary routing guides in favor of the much more lucrative spot market. This creates a vicious cycle. The more loads that are rejected, the more freight gets pushed onto the spot market. This surge in demand for last-minute capacity sends spot prices soaring, which in turn incentivizes even more carriers to reject their contracted freight. It’s an engine of volatility, directly showing that contract prices are out of sync with reality and that routing guide compliance has become a serious, costly problem for shippers.
In a market where routine winter storms can now trigger major rate swings, what are the most critical steps shippers should take to build resilience? Could you detail a few specific strategies, perhaps around carrier partnerships or contract contingencies, to better navigate this amplified volatility?
In this new environment, the old playbook of just going to the spot market as a last resort is a recipe for budget disaster. Resilience now means being proactive, not reactive. The most critical step is to deepen and diversify carrier partnerships. Don’t just treat carriers as a commodity; treat them as strategic partners. Understand their networks, their pain points, and reward the ones who stick with you when things get tough. A second key strategy is to build more dynamic contracts. Instead of a static rate for a year, consider incorporating contingencies for extreme weather events or when market-wide rejection rates cross a certain threshold. This provides more predictability for both sides. Finally, shippers must get better at forecasting. This means investing in data platforms that provide a real-time view of market conditions, allowing them to anticipate capacity crunches and secure trucks before a storm hits and the rest of the market starts to panic.
Carriers appear to have more leverage in this tight market, but that comes with significant operational risks. How can carriers and brokers strategically balance the opportunity for premium rates against the dangers of overcommitment during disruptions? Please describe the role real-time data plays in this.
This is a classic high-stakes balancing act. The temptation for a carrier to chase every high-paying spot load during a disruption is immense. But the risk is equally massive. If you overcommit your fleet and then get stuck in a blizzard or can’t meet a pickup window, you’re not just failing on one load; you’re damaging your reputation and potentially losing a long-term contract for a short-term gain. The key is disciplined, data-driven decision-making. Real-time data is everything here. Brokers and carriers using advanced platforms can see where weather is impacting transit times, monitor rejection-rate trends in specific regions, and understand true market prices. This allows them to strategically position assets to serve high-priority customers while selectively taking on spot loads they are confident they can service. It’s about replacing gut feelings with analytics to capture the upside of the premium rates without falling victim to the operational chaos.
With high tender rejections and weather-related volatility likely continuing, how might these dynamics influence contract negotiations in the upcoming bid season? What key metrics should both shippers and carriers be watching closely as they prepare for these discussions?
The upcoming bid season is going to be incredibly telling. I believe we’ll see a significant shift away from the traditional, rigid annual contract. The volatility we’re experiencing has exposed its weaknesses. Shippers are coming to the table armed with data showing just how costly it is when their routing guides fail, and carriers are coming in knowing their capacity is at a premium. Both sides should be laser-focused on tender rejection rates—both their own historical data and the national indices. This metric is no longer just an operational footnote; it’s a direct measure of contract viability. Shippers will also need to track the spread between their contract rates and the spot market to understand their true cost of failure. I anticipate we’ll see more negotiations around shorter-term contracts, built-in rate escalators tied to market indices, and dedicated capacity agreements that offer stability for the shipper and guaranteed revenue for the carrier.
What is your forecast for the truckload market as we move through the rest of the year?
While the acute volatility from winter weather will subside as we move into spring, the underlying market tightness isn’t going away overnight. The high tender rejection rates point to a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand that will continue to define the landscape. I forecast that spot rates will cool off from their winter peaks but will settle on a much higher floor than we saw in previous years. We won’t return to a loose, shipper-friendly market anytime soon. Shippers should prepare for a sustained period of elevated transportation costs, and contract rates will inevitably rise in the next bid cycle to reflect this new reality. The key takeaway is that this isn’t a temporary disruption; it’s a market that has fundamentally evolved. Success for both shippers and carriers will depend on their ability to adapt to this more volatile and data-driven environment.
