The final employment report of 2025 highlights an emerging stabilization in the trucking industry after significant job losses earlier in the year. Thousands of jobs were eliminated in the trucking sector throughout 2025, but the last quarter showed promising signs of job stability, potentially ending a prolonged overcapacity issue that persisted for over two years. This development raises questions about the industry’s ability to sustain job growth and maintain stability moving forward.
Signs of Stabilization
Decrease in Job Losses Towards the Year-End
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 800 trucking jobs were cut in December, marking the sixth and final decrease of the year. However, it’s noteworthy that only two job loss months occurred in the last five months of the year. This suggests a positive trend towards stabilizing employment within the sector. Following the pandemic, a surge of new truck drivers entered the market to capitalize on high rates. As market conditions eventually normalized to pre-pandemic levels, the excess number of drivers created overcapacity, thereby putting pressure on rates.
Since trucking jobs peaked in July 2022, the industry has been reducing the surplus workforce significantly. Currently, there are 42,000 fewer truckers compared to that peak, with 6,000 job losses in 2024 and 35,000 in 2023. Notably, only 500 truck driving jobs were lost since August 2024, indicating a shift towards more stable employment numbers. David Spencer, Arrive Logistics’ vice president of market intelligence, noted that the stabilization in trucking jobs correlates with the stability in rates observed over the past year. He indicated that this trend is favorable for trucking companies, predicting potential job growth in 2025 if the freight environment continues to improve.
Potential for Job Growth
Spencer expects that if rates increase substantially throughout the year, the industry might switch back to a growth mode, likely resulting in job increases by mid-year or later. Revised statistics reflected fewer trucking jobs than initially reported, with November 2024 seeing an increase of 1,700 jobs, down from an earlier reported increase of 2,900, while October recorded a decrease of 1,600 jobs, revised from an early estimate of 800.
The broader transportation sector experienced a rise of nearly 10,000 jobs, bolstered by gains in air transport, couriers/messengers, warehousing/storage, and support activities for transportation. Jobs in other subsectors remained mostly stable. This indicates a broader recovery in the transportation industry, which could have positive implications for the trucking industry as well. Overall, transportation jobs increased by over 100,000 compared to the previous year, but were down by 25,000 from the peak in July 2022.
Wider Impact on the Economy
Wage Increases Across the Sector
Wages across the sector rose month-over-month, with average weekly earnings for all employees climbing by nearly $14, reaching $1,180.38. Hourly earnings also increased to $30.90 from $30.24 in December 2023. For production and nonsupervisory employees, weekly earnings rose from $1,099.19 in November to $1,110.56, with hourly earnings up by about 77 cents from the previous year. This increase in wages indicates a healthy demand for labor in the sector, which could help attract new talent and retain existing employees.
Nationally, 256,000 jobs were added across all industries, surpassing economists’ predictions of 153,000. Despite this job growth, the Dow Jones dropped by 600 points due to concerns that a stronger-than-expected economy might delay further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate edged down by 0.1% to 4.1%, remaining unchanged at 4.3% for the transportation sector compared to the previous year. This rate is significantly lower than the 15.7% high recorded in May and July 2020, but above the pre-pandemic level of 2.8% in December 2019.
Implications for 2025
The final employment report for 2024 reveals a notable stabilization in the trucking industry, following a period marked by substantial job losses earlier in the year. Throughout much of 2024, the trucking sector faced the elimination of thousands of jobs, compounding an overcapacity issue that had lingered for more than two years. However, the last quarter of the year brought encouraging signs of job stability. This suggests a positive shift that might signal the end of the industry’s prolonged struggles with overcapacity. The emerging stability is leading experts to consider the potential for sustained job growth and consistent stability moving forward. As the industry attempts to recover, questions remain about its ability to not only maintain this newfound stability but also to foster long-term job growth. The developments in the trucking sector in late 2024 may offer a glimpse of a more secure future, yet the challenge lies in ensuring this trend continues into the coming years.
