As 2024 concluded, global air cargo tonnages registered about a 6% increase compared to the same period in 2023, though this represented a softer growth compared to earlier months. The average full-market rates for the month were up by 7% year on year (YoY), indicating a slower growth trajectory as the year progressed. This change reflected a possible shift towards more moderate growth trends as the industry headed into 2025.
Although the year ended with slower growth, the initial figures of 2025 showed only a modest +2% YoY growth in global air cargo tonnages. This mild growth partly stemmed from the seasonal drop and severe weather conditions in the United States. However, global spot rates started 2025 with a notable +22% increase compared to the same period last year. This rise was driven largely by substantial increases from the Asia-Pacific region (+23% YoY) and the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins (+59% YoY).
Tonnage Trends and Regional Contributions
Seasonal and Weather-Driven Factors
The seasonal drop and severe weather conditions, especially in the United States, contributed significantly to the modest growth in air cargo tonnages at the start of 2025. Weather disruptions often lead to logistical challenges, delaying flights and affecting cargo movement. Despite these hurdles, global spot rates remained strong, aided by robust performances from major regions like Asia-Pacific and MESA. With an overall average worldwide air cargo rate rising to US$2.65 per kilo, combining both spot and contract rates, the market demonstrated resilience in face of these challenges.
In December 2024, global chargeable weight saw a minor setback with a -3% month-on-month (MoM) decrease, primarily attributable to drops in tonnages from Europe (-6%) and Asia-Pacific (-2%). Nevertheless, the latter part of the year witnessed significant tonnage from Asia-Pacific, which led to a +6% YoY increase in Q4 compared to Q3 and an +11% increase compared to Q4 of 2023. This shows that, despite momentary declines, regional demands play critical roles in stabilizing overall market conditions.
YoY Growth Patterns
Year-on-year demand growth for global air cargo showed a general deceleration throughout 2024. Initially strong, with +12% growth in the first two quarters, the rate decreased to +11% in Q3 and +8% in Q4. This slowing growth can be largely attributed to higher base comparisons and disruptions in container shipping pushing traffic towards air cargo earlier in the year. MESA witnessed a significant tonnage easing towards the end of the year, with a +7% YoY quarterly increase by Q4, a substantial decline from the +27% YoY growth observed in Q1.
However, Asia-Pacific and MESA still managed to maintain high spot rates for the majority of 2024. By the final weeks of the year, these rates started to ease slightly. On the other hand, the transatlantic westbound market experienced a significant spike, achieving a peak of US$3.88 per kilo in mid-December before falling to $2.95 per kilo by year’s end. This rate still represented a +44% YoY increase.
Market Shifts and Economic Implications
Regional Demand Impact
Despite the robust demand from Asia-Pacific, the growth rate saw a marked deceleration towards the year’s end. The data showed a slight setback in worldwide chargeable weight in December 2024, driven mainly by decreased tonnage contributions from Europe and Asia-Pacific. However, focusing on Q4, the high tonnage from the Asia-Pacific region boosted YoY increases.
The moderate growth scenario observed was closely linked to the economic conditions and logistical challenges faced during the year. The geopolitical environment, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer purchasing behavior significantly affected regional demands. For example, as container shipping faced disruptions, many businesses turned to air cargo as an alternative, thus temporarily inflating demand during earlier months. By the end of 2024, some of these issues had stabilized, leading to a more tempered growth pattern.
Future Prospects
The seasonal downturn and severe weather, especially in the US, played a key role in the modest upturn of air cargo tonnages at the start of 2025. Weather-related disruptions often cause logistical issues, delaying flights and impacting cargo movement. Despite these challenges, global spot rates remained robust, driven by strong performances from key regions like Asia-Pacific and MESA. The overall average global air cargo rate rose to US$2.65 per kilo, including both spot and contract rates, demonstrating the market’s resilience.
In December 2024, global chargeable weight experienced a slight setback, with a 3% month-on-month decline, mainly due to reduced tonnages from Europe (6%) and Asia-Pacific (2%). However, the latter part of the year saw substantial tonnage from Asia-Pacific, resulting in a 6% year-on-year increase in Q4 compared to Q3 and an 11% increase compared to Q4 of 2023. This indicates that, despite temporary declines, regional demands are crucial in stabilizing the overall market.
